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1. jasoniscoolman2010xo 2:00 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
some snow in the northeast today winter its here for now but a big warm up soon by tuseday..
Member Since: September 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 971

2. CyclonicVoyage 2:04 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters

From the previous blog. Looks like the NOAA jets are headed home after next task is complete. And future Air Force jets are being discussed in conference call today.

1002. CyclonicVoyage 2:02 PM GMT on November 05, 2010
Friday November 5

NOAA-43: Down day as storm proximity is too close islands

NOAA-42: Scheduled for a tasked mission in T.S. Tomas, scheduled takeoff at 20:00 UTC (4:00 PM local) from St Croix, landing at MacDill AFB/Tampa.

Saturday November 6

NOAA-43: scheduled for a tasked mission in T.S. Tomas, takeoff will be at 8:00 UTC (4:00 AM local) from St. Croix, landing in MacDill AFB/Tampa around 12:30 pm local.

G-IV

Thursday November 4

NOAA-49: flew a tasked synoptic mission into TD Tomas. Takeoff was at 05:30 UTC (1:30 AM EDT) from St. Croix, recovering at MacDill AFB/Tampa. No further flights are planned.

AFRC DRIFT BUOY DEPLOYMENT: None at this time.

CONFERENCE CALL

An HRD Conference call is scheduled for tomorrow, Friday November 5 at 10:30 AM to discuss the further missions in TD Tomas.
Action: Quote | Modify Comment

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3. surfmom 2:05 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
giving this a read & then out for a while — need to change the brain channel — I keep thinking of Haitian babies, children, suffering & the frustration of watching this unfold w/ no ability –short of donations and prayer to make a difference
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 25337

4. jasoniscoolman2010xo 2:06 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
Once Tomas pushes north of the islands on Sunday, the storm should weaken quickly, as wind shear is expected to rise to a very high 50 knots. wow!!!!maybe wind shear up to 70 knots after 92 hours from now..

Member Since: September 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 971

5. TampaSpin 2:06 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    

Quoting Chucktown:

NOAA still has to get advanced permission from the Cuban government to fly over the island. What I meant was they just can’t freely go wherever they want and whenever they want.

That is exactly correct….as i just stated also …..advanced request must be given in advance to get permission.. Orca is wrong that can’t just fly in there as they please.

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6. cat5hurricane 2:07 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
Thanks for update, Doc.
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7. Buhdog 2:07 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
Good luck Haiti….

imagine how scared young children are.

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8. Neapolitan 2:08 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    

Quoting Orcasystems:

No foreign aircraft can overfly another sovereign nations airspace without permission. That includes civilian and military aircraft.

True, but the NOAA was granted special exception to the rule by Cuba because it’s in that nation’s best interest to allow HH recon; they allow the overflights, and in return their mets receive nearly complete access to HH data, which they use for their own needs. Seems like a fair deal, if you ask me…

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 1931

9. Orcasystems 2:08 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    

Quoting surfmom:
giving this a read & then out for a while — need to change the brain channel — I keep thinking of Haitian babies, children, suffering & the frustration of watching this unfold w/ no ability –short of donations and prayer to make a difference

Not a good thought for the day..but its a fact and its happening.

Go read these website SM, people are helping 🙂

Haiti Hope Fund

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 43 Comments: 18555

10. unruly 2:09 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
after careful consideration, Tomas will bring alot of rain to Haiti. He will then move out to the atlantic and regain strength. Tomas will land in the Bahamas as a cat3, and may turn left and hit Hampton Beach, NH as a cat 5, causing billions in damage and millions in lives lost…this is all brought to you by the JJHPM…..
Member Since: October 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 897

11. Orcasystems 2:10 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    

Quoting TampaSpin:

That is exactly correct….as i just stated also …..advanced request must be given in advance to get permission.. Orca is wrong that can’t just fly in there as they please.

I’m sorry princess, could you post the comment where I said that?

look at comment #8

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 43 Comments: 18555

12. hydrus 2:11 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    

Quoting TampaSpin:

That is exactly correct….as i just stated also …..advanced request must be given in advance to get permission.. Orca is wrong that can’t just fly in there as they please.

The NAM model has Tomas meandering over Haiti…Not a likely scenario..Link

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13. sunlinepr 2:13 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1529

14. Orcasystems 2:14 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
Complete Update


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

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15. sunlinepr 2:14 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1529

16. TampaSpin 2:15 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    

Quoting Orcasystems:

I’m sorry princess, could you post the comment where I said that?

Admin. if you don’t do something about this, OH THE KING FISH HAS SPOKEN

Quoting Orcasystems:

BS, they overfly Cuba all the time doing active Hurricanes, in the area

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 147 Comments: 16416

17. hydrus 2:16 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    

Quoting Neapolitan:

True, but the NOAA was granted special exception to the rule by Cuba because it’s in that nation’s best interest to allow HH recon; they allow the overflights, and in return their mets receive nearly complete access to HH data, which they use for their own needs. Seems like a fair deal, if you ask me…

Fair indeed..In 1963 the Cuban government accused the U.S. of seeding Hurricane Flora, causing the prodigious rainfall amounts and huge death toll…They disallowed U.S.flights over Cuba. The U.S. denied all accusations of seeding hurricanes over Cuba.

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 5616

18. hurricanejunky 2:17 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
Tomas sure looks STRONG this AM. It’s a bad scenario for Haiti, a strengthening hurricane approaching them. UGH! For those interested:

Tomas Live Feed

Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1815

19. stormwatcherCI 2:17 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    

Quoting TampaSpin:

Admin. if you don’t do something about this, OH THE KING FISH HAS SPOKEN

Quoting Orcasystems:


BS, they overfly Cuba all the time doing active Hurricanes, in the area

Sorry TS, gotta side with Orca on this one. That post was a reply to someone who said they CANNOT fly in Cuban airspace. Not saying they don’t need authorization.

Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5530

20. CBJeff 2:18 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
I think you’ll fins the HH’s reticence to fly Tomas as he threads his way through the Windward Passage is less about sovereign airspace and more about topography. Guantanamo Province is pretty rugged.
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21. TampaSpin 2:19 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
After everyone pointed out you was wrong…..you made a retraction…….LOL
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22. Quadrantid 2:21 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    

Quoting Neapolitan:

True, but the NOAA was granted special exception to the rule by Cuba because it’s in that nation’s best interest to allow HH recon; they allow the overflights, and in return their mets receive nearly complete access to HH data, which they use for their own needs. Seems like a fair deal, if you ask me…

As an admittedly drunken brit about to hit the sack in Australia (so I won’t see replies), I feel compelled to point out that a truly fair deal would be to give them all the HH data, rather than just “nearly complete” access. As a scientist, the idea of witholding data in a collaboration is both alien and disgusting to me, and I really hope it doesn’t happen in actuality.

NN folks, and good luck to Haiti. Hope the mighty Tomas spares you as much as possible… YNWA…

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 53

23. 1900hurricane 2:22 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
How about a look under the hood of Tomas?

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24. reedzone 2:22 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
I was finally right on with the intensity scheme last night and I think it could clinch category 2 force winds before weakening. There is a very slim chance it rapidly intensifies to a major Hurricane, but the possibility is there. A strengthening Hurricane is not good for Haiti, but it could have been worse. Thank God these prayers were answered in some way.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238

25. Orcasystems 2:22 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    

Quoting CBJeff:
I think you’ll fins the HH’s reticence to fly Tomas as he threads his way through the Windward Passage is less about sovereign airspace and more about topography. Guantanamo Province is pretty rugged.

I was reading some other pages..and I can’t find it again… their biggest concern with flying over land during a hurricane is tornadoes, and I would assume (although I did not see it posted) rock filled clouds.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 43 Comments: 18555

26. TampaSpin 2:25 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sorry TS, gotta side with Orca on this one. That post was a reply to someone who said they CANNOT fly in Cuban airspace. Not saying they don’t need authorization.

Someone posted the HH flew around Cuba. The next person said they could not because of Cuba. Then Orca said this, BS, they overfly Cuba all the time doing active Hurricanes, in the area

Which suggest they can fly in anytime they want. Then some of said they can only fly over Cuba once a request is asked and permission is given. The Orca posted his retraction of:No foreign aircraft can overfly another sovereign nations airspace without permission. That includes civilian and military aircraft.

I’m over this God on this Blog. YOu all have fun with this Nut case that thinks he is GOD!

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 147 Comments: 16416

27. Neapolitan 2:26 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    

Quoting Quadrantid:

As an admittedly drunken brit about to hit the sack in Australia (so I won’t see replies), I feel compelled to point out that a truly fair deal would be to give them all the HH data, rather than just “nearly complete” access. As a scientist, the idea of witholding data in a collaboration is both alien and disgusting to me, and I really hope it doesn’t happen in actuality.

NN folks, and good luck to Haiti. Hope the mighty Tomas spares you as much as possible… YNWA…

I didn’t mean to insinuate any science- or weather-related data was being withheld; I merely meant that, being USAF/NOAA planes, there are certain military-related data that are not being openly transmitted to Cuban officials, and rightly so.

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 1931

28. Quadrantid 2:28 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    

Quoting Neapolitan:

I didn’t mean to insinuate any science- or weather-related data was being withheld; I merely meant that, being USAF/NOAA planes, there are certain military-related data that are not being openly transmitted to Cuban officials, and rightly so.

Ah — that’s fair enough — it just sounded scary that weather info could be withheld even though they granted airspace.

I’m piddled and puddled — so no offence meant — but I’m glad scientific sense holds sway even if military arguments go on 🙂

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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29. lordhuracan01 2:29 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    

We have alot of rain here in azua from early this morning….. azua is on the red spot of this map

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30. Gustavike 2:29 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
Pilon’s radar just lost sight of the eye wall Tomas
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31. NEwxguy 2:30 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
10. unruly 2:09 PM GMT on November 05, 2010

Poof!!!!

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32. CBJeff 2:31 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
Little-known Cuban overflight fact:

A few years before HH was granted overflight, US military aircraft were (very quietly) granted overflight for medical evacuation flights from Guantanamo Bay.

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33. AstroHurricane001 2:36 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
I have updated my latest blog entry on Tomas. Please take a look at it and make any relavent comments.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 2148

34. dealsbeachdia 2:39 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
www.loveachild.com

Hi Everyone: I have been to Haiti 13 times with these people and used to run the office, and I KNOW almiost EVERY dollar goes to the people. This couple are the hardest working and most dedicated people I have ever met. They have schools in l”artibonite where the cholera outbreak started and schools in the southern mountains that will be severely threatened by Tomas.
Please help and thank you Link

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35. GOLSUTIGERS 2:40 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
received a twitter from my nephew in Leogane. water is rising in the streets. the city buses are picking up people that do not have shelter and moving them to higher ground.His comment was “at leasr govt works sometimes”, also the UN is patroling the streets.
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36. Thundercloud01221991 2:43 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
with such a large eye could this become annular before reaching the shear
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37. stormwatcherCI 2:45 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    

Quoting GOLSUTIGERS:
received a twitter from my nephew in Leogane. water is rising in the streets. the city buses are picking up people that do not have shelter and moving them to higher ground.His comment was “at leasr govt works sometimes”, also the UN is patroling the streets.

Glad to hear something is being done although I can’t help but say it should have been done much sooner. God be with them.

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38. weathermanwannabe 2:49 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    

Quoting CBJeff:
Little-known Cuban overflight fact:

A few years before HH was granted overflight, US military aircraft were (very quietly) granted overflight for medical evacuation flights from Guantanamo Bay.

My Cuban Father worked for the CIA in the 60’s and they overflew Cuba all the time without any permission………:)

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39. Cat5Hurricane250 2:50 PM GMT on November 05, 2010    
Tomas now forecasted to reach 90 knots

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT……. 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT……. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT…….120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 74.4W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 74.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.8N 73.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT… 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.1N 72.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

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